Baseballs will fly out of Cleveland, plus other best bets for Monday

Last weekend was the first weekend of the year that I had a deep desire to watch football. I know the USFL is moving on, and while I wish everyone involved with the league the best of luck, I have taken a stance that I will not invest any of my time in a spring league until one stays. I’ve seen far too many come and go.

No, I’m talking about college football and the NFL. I need her to come back as soon as possible. When they end I still have soccer every weekend to fill that early morning/afternoon weekend pitch. Now that the football season is over, that’s over. I woke up on Saturday with nothing to see and an emptiness in my soul. All I wanted at that moment was a dreary afternoon game between Purdue and Minnesota on a cloudy day. It didn’t have to be a good game; I just needed it to watch a game.

hurry up football The White Sox are terrible and I need you.

Okay, let’s move on to tonight’s winners.

All Eastern times and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook


The hot ticket

Rangers at Guardians, 7:10 p.m. | Television: MLB.TV

Latest Odds:

Over 9.5

  • key trend: The over is 4-1-1 in the last six matches.
  • The Choice: Above 9.5 (-105)

Sound the alarm! A perfect storm is brewing in Cleveland tonight! A perfect storm that should see the ball fly out of the yard with ease and score lots of runs. Although there is some rain forecast that could mess things up for all of us, game-time temperatures should be in the upper 70’s with winds howling to the right-mid.

Of course, the weather only plays a role in our storm. There is also the pitching matchup. Cal Quantrill starts for the Guardians, and he’s bringing in his uninspiring 15.1% strikeout rate. If that’s not enough, he pairs it with an 8.7% walk rate, which is slightly higher than the league average for beginners. He’ll be up against Texas’ Jon Gray, who might feel like he’s back at Coors Field tonight.

As for Quantrill, while his hard contact rate is average, he allows a lot of flyballs, and his allowed home run rate is much lower than it should be considering how many contacts he’s giving up. At some point you have to expect a course correction, and well, maybe these winds will bring the correction with them. The only thing missing from this perfect storm is George Clooney and Marky Mark.

This is what SportsLine says about the game: The projection model also tends to over, but what it and two SportsLine pundits love is a play on the money line.


The picks

NHL

Avalanche at Oilers, 8 p.m. | TV: TNT

Latest Odds:

Edmonton Oilers +115

The Pick: Oilers (+115) — Listen, the Avalanche are a juggernaut, and that’s what this series shows. They won their first three games and beat the Oilers 16-8, scoring six of Edmonton’s eight goals in the first game. Since then it is 8:2. The Avs will win this series.

But for that they will probably need five games.

Although the Oilers will be without Evander Kane tonight thanks to his cheap shot at Nazem Kadri, Kadri is out tonight because of that cheap shot. The Oilers win this trade because as good as Kane was for them, Kadri was incredible for the Avs in the playoffs. So I think the Oilers get one last win tonight before their season ends, with Connor McDavid taking the team on the back and helping them survive a few more days.

key trend: The home team has won seven of the last nine matches.

MLB

Sailors at Astros, 8:10 p.m. | Television: MLB.TV

Latest Odds:

Seattle Mariners +160

The Choice: Mariners (+155) — Seattle got off to a good start this year, raising hopes and expectations from the fanbase, but it’s gone 13-24 from an 11-6 start. As bad as the Mariners were, they won four out of nine against Houston and are sending Robbie Ray up the mound tonight. The reigning AL Cy Young champion has been a disappointment since coming to Seattle, but the underlying metrics suggest he wasn’t as bad as his 4.93 ERA would suggest.

He’s allowing things through at a speed that seems unsustainable and should be recovering, and tonight he’s up against a Houston team that fares much worse against lefties (0.297 wOBA, 98 wRC+) than against righties (0.323 wOBA, 116 wRC+) . While Seattle will struggle against Houston’s Cristian Javier, I think Ray can do enough to keep them in the game and give them a chance to win more often than the +155 price tag would suggest.

key trend: The Astros haven’t hit lefties well at all this season.

🔒 SportsLine Picks of the Day: Wanna go a little crazy tonight? The SportsLine projection model identified a four-team MLB parlay tonight that pays 12-to-1.


Monday Night Strikeout Props

Not much choice tonight but these crossed out props represent good value.

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